Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 11.946971 13.427665 15.128489 17.252608 19.872219 23.049923 27.282129
2024-10-27 9.761837 11.456431 13.544724 16.375807 20.230143 25.488944 33.600742
2024-11-03 9.569385 11.682061 14.462605 18.550546 24.727374 34.366527 52.291457
2024-11-10 9.051538 11.358354 14.540470 19.511421 27.670239 41.958824 73.784799
2024-11-17 8.132014 10.355476 13.501615 18.585655 27.341316 43.804844 85.250373
2024-11-24 7.584231 9.805515 13.033105 18.440756 28.260536 48.304849 107.175693
2024-12-01 7.113053 9.313755 12.583955 18.236711 28.997675 52.716547 134.390218
2024-12-08 6.756646 8.955056 12.293310 18.243735 30.126463 58.548554 176.741311
2024-12-15 6.495162 8.713588 12.156621 18.491074 31.799684 66.682466 251.375412
2024-12-22 6.110341 8.252791 11.618805 17.923965 31.569026 69.386274 306.126036
2024-12-29 5.867768 7.995739 11.393500 17.913474 32.607292 76.708890 439.937433
2025-01-05 5.548805 7.597646 10.898106 17.316437 32.115897 78.659846 540.306927
2025-01-12 5.173702 7.107331 10.241063 16.391350 30.800406 77.653166 616.013292
2025-01-19 4.849495 6.683138 9.672276 15.591526 29.678491 77.045277 717.517957
2025-01-26 4.983720 7.005863 10.426391 17.602264 36.568556 117.960998 11301.605211
2025-02-02 4.935280 7.021764 10.632119 18.487767 40.756531 155.850321 NaN
2025-02-09 4.667792 6.652554 10.098045 17.634691 39.222302 154.136855 NaN
2025-02-16 4.509876 6.462053 9.885712 17.501006 40.053802 172.538519 NaN
2025-02-23 4.357286 6.272638 9.661810 17.312678 40.661919 191.373989 NaN
2025-03-02 4.238082 6.134694 9.526300 17.319162 41.989595 222.048872 NaN
2025-03-09 4.151218 6.048307 9.483720 17.547435 44.260358 274.502911 NaN
2025-03-16 3.989942 5.823715 9.155961 17.023848 43.423526 282.664594 NaN
2025-03-23 3.891870 5.706862 9.034659 17.014155 44.710935 333.662871 NaN